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A Tapped Out Market

10K views 71 replies 44 participants last post by  cinisajoy 
#1 ·
Just read this interesting article from agent Kristin Nelson's newsletter. She basically said that it's getting harder for self published books to be picked up by traditional publishers because the market gets tapped out:

For example, an attending agent highlighted that a St. Martin's editor was willing to go on record to explain exactly why her house will no longer buy indie authors who have self-published ebooks that have gone on to be wildly successful. St. Martin's claims their data shows that the ebook sales have already tapped out the market.

This wasn't a surprise to me; it's not the first time I've heard it. I've also heard that even if a publisher buys a successful indie title intending to publish a trade paperback edition, and even if they're willing to pay bookstore co-op, booksellers are reluctant to grant that title the physical retail space. They are simply turning down the co-op offer.

Without the support of booksellers, it's going to be difficult for a publisher to make such a buy a success.
 
#52 ·
The thing is that publishers have always been book suppliers, not book sellers. It was always the bookstores and chains that did the selling. Publishers are fighting tooth and nail to save that system.

As far as the bookstores turning down coops for previously indie books if true it sounds more like a revenge move than a rational one. There are more than a few stores who consider indies to be their enemies for working with Amazon, so I suppose that is possible. I honestly can't think of any other rationale, but it is hearsay after all so may not be true.
 
#53 ·
The argument that bookstores don't want indie paperbacks in their stores is baloney. Bookstores have little room for books period, it's mostly toys and novelty stuff now.

I think the truth is the data shows that the model of traditional publishing speed is finally catching up to them. They don't compete with one of us, but with ALL of us. In 2011, I sold like $30 worth of paperbacks. Total. Not each month, TOTAL after like 2 years after the release all counted up.  My reboot of my writing career this summer, I haven't sold less than $100 in paperback sales (with like a $1 royalty so I can keep them cheap) in a month so far. It's not much, I'm just a little shrimp in the ocean, but there are a lot more shrimp starting to add up and the whales are feeling crowded.

 
#54 ·
Interesting thought,
I can get Joe (pick one) or Russell or any other POD author at my local Hastings or BN.  As long as I give them cash upfront and wait a week or more for the book to come in.
 
G
#55 ·
cinisajoy said:
Interesting thought,
I can get Joe (pick one) or Russell or any other POD author at my local Hastings or BN. As long as I give them cash upfront and wait a week or more for the book to come in.
Wait, am I one of the Joes that you mentioned? Because if you could order one of my books at your local bookstore and send me a picture of it, I would be tickled to see it. Heck, I'll throw in a free ebook just for the heck of it! (except don't order my books yet, I'm redoing the covers of my novels and the new ones should look much better).
 
#56 ·
cinisajoy said:
Interesting thought,
I can get Joe (pick one) or Russell or any other POD author at my local Hastings or BN. As long as I give them cash upfront and wait a week or more for the book to come in.
You can do this anywhere. But then again, why not order online and have it delivered to your door? I think this is the main competition that bookshops are facing. They have limited shelf space. the internet does not. People like as much choice as possible in books.
 
#57 ·
Kristin and I were told by two publishers in early 2012 that "Everyone who would ever read WOOL has already read it." That's when it had sold around 50,000 copies. So the market for that book was less than the number of people living in my home town, and there was nothing the publisher could do to win over a few hundred thousand new readers.

Since that proclamation, the series has sold over two million extra copies. So just because publishers are saying something -- and acting on those beliefs -- doesn't make them right. It's just another excuse for their caution. Of course they've been burned by a few acquisitions. The majority of their books don't sell well. And it'll always be for some reason (vampires are so done; no one reads urban fantasy anymore; books this long don't sell) when the truth is that the market is variable, no one knows why some things take off and others don't, and publishers succeed by throwing spaghetti at the wall, seeing what sticks, and reading way too much into what doesn't.

Of course, the point Kristin is making is one of especial importance to her: Publishers aren't picking up self-pub titles with the same wild abandon as before. But remember that the period of comparison is the post-50-Shades insanity where every publisher was looking for the next breakout that would sell hundreds of millions of copies. That was irrational exuberance. And this is the over-correction the opposite direction. Things will settle somewhere in-between.
 
#59 ·
Hugh Howey said:
Of course they've been burned by a few acquisitions. The majority of their books don't sell well. And it'll always be for some reason (vampires are so done; no one reads urban fantasy anymore; books this long don't sell) when the truth is that the market is variable, no one knows why some things take off and others don't, and publishers succeed by throwing spaghetti at the wall, seeing what sticks, and reading way too much into what doesn't.
This isn't helped by the fact that large bookstores have a horrible return policy, and the books get such a tiny window to break out before they get returned. Bookstores often order a large number of copies of a single book, and if it doesn't sell well immediately, they'll return most of them. Worse, mass market paperbacks are often strip-cover returns, meaning that the front cover is stripped from the book and returned to the publisher while the rest of the book is dumped in the recycling bin, so they have to print the books, then they lose the stock on a return, and then they have to print the books again when another bookstore orders more.
 
#60 ·
Hugh Howey said:
And it'll always be for some reason (vampires are so done; no one reads urban fantasy anymore; books this long don't sell) when the truth is that the market is variable, no one knows why some things take off and others don't, and publishers succeed by throwing spaghetti at the wall, seeing what sticks, and reading way too much into what doesn't.
Yes, and if it doesn't stick *immediately* they are onto the next new thing. So shortsighted!
 
#61 ·
Patty Jansen said:
You can do this anywhere. But then again, why not order online and have it delivered to your door? I think this is the main competition that bookshops are facing. They have limited shelf space. the internet does not. People like as much choice as possible in books.
Not necessarily. For example, you can't order Createspace titles in German brick and mortar bookstores because the German distributor Libri refuses to carry them, which sucks for German indies. But then, I order Createspace titles via Amazon anyway and have never had any problems.
 
#62 ·
CoraBuhlert said:
Not necessarily. For example, you can't order Createspace titles in German brick and mortar bookstores because the German distributor Libri refuses to carry them, which sucks for German indies. But then, I order Createspace titles via Amazon anyway and have never had any problems.
This illustrates exactly what I mean. Because the whole argument about bookstores is irrelevant. Most bookstores will end up being irrelevant. Why? Because they don't have what we want. And apart from the community shops that offer added value, I really can't see any way out for them, especially not for the chain stores.
 
#63 ·
I don't think brick and mortar bookstores are completely irrelevant yet, though they are fast becoming irrelevant for me. I still pop in and browse, but I buy less and less at bookstores, because the English language sections were never very good and are the first to fall, when a bookstore is restructured, usually to accomodate more non-book crap. And when I'm looking for German books as Christmas presents, etc..., I increasingly buy those online as well, because online I can find exactly what I want such as the exact installment of series X my mother needs.

The Amazon bashers here in Germany usually accuse people who buy online of being lazy. But the truth is that at least here in Germany, Amazon's early adopters were academics, university students and people who prefered to read foreign language editions, i.e. high volumes readers with specific tastes, because Amazon finally gave us access to all the books we couldn't find in our oh so wonderful local brick and mortar stores.

Distributor Libri refusing to carry Createspace paperbacks, because "everybody can upload anything and there's no control whether anybody's rights are being infringed" (that's honestly their explanation), just drives even more customers to Amazon and away from German online book stores, let alone brick and mortar stores. 
 
#64 ·
Rosalind James -

An Amazon contract is probably one of the only ones I would take... and that's just for ease. I will be releasing my novels wide, but I'm not optimistic I will see many sales outside of Amazon. This summer was just so obvious, I had hundreds on Amazon and 18 on Nook for the same book all in the same week. But there's no reason to go exclusive for my novel because I don't want borrows.
 
#65 ·
Dan Wood said:
I had the pleasure of sitting in on several of these panels at NINC and Kristin is absolutely right that there is a great hesitance now evident in traditional publishers working with indies on these sorts of deals. I think this is partially due to fear about the dynamic of the publisher-author relationship starting to shift. I think they also are afraid to experiment to figure out how to make these partnerships successful because it is different than marketing a brand new book. I am slightly skeptical about booksellers turning down co-op offers but I have very little insight in to the b&m side of the publishing business.

The print market is complex. Absurdly complex. I think someone will open the print market to indies in some way. I am very excited to see how Barbara Freethy's deal with Ingram works out.
From what my agents say--this is what they think. But...just because most think it doesn't make it true.
 
#66 ·
:-x said:
Why would you want to be picked up by traditional publishing? I've BTDT and can't imagine ever going back. I'm lucky enough to earn as much (more recently) doing indie as I did trad, so maybe I can't appreciate the other side of it. IME, I wouldn't go with trad. publishing again if they paid me. LOL.
I was thinking the same thing. If you're a bestseller on your own, you're way past needing a traditional publisher. Arguably, you don't need one in the first place, but your mileage may vary. (I was open to hybrid publishing, but after seeing a writer friend get screwed by one of the big ones, I think I'm good.) :p
 
#67 ·
elizabethbarone said:
I was thinking the same thing. If you're a bestseller on your own, you're way past needing a traditional publisher. Arguably, you don't need one in the first place, but your mileage may vary. (I was open to hybrid publishing, but after seeing a writer friend get screwed by one of the big ones, I think I'm good.) :p
I actually think being a hybrid CAN be the best of both worlds. You get the publisher's efforts pushing your self-pubbed books, and vice versa. I've seen that work for a fair number of people. Even something as simple as having Crossing do my German book--they knew what kind of cover would work in the German market, they sent out an email or whatever announcing it, and they'll continue to "merchandise" it, as they call it, because it is their investment. Makes a big difference. Ditto with Audible. When they give you a boost, wow, are you boosted. And it helps all your other books.

Most of my books have been bestsellers (I mean, have reached Top 100 overall on Amazon). But there are several other levels above where I am that I think will be much more easily attained with a publisher's power behind me. I've heard many very successful indies say that they are having to push harder and faster than ever these days to keep sales going, and that's certainly my experience too. It'd be awfully nice in any case to have somebody else doing some of the heavy lifting. If it works that way, great--and it does work that way for many. If it doesn't, well, no harm done.
 
#68 ·
HSh said:
Well maybe if they didn't charge twice as much for the same book? :-/
Ya think? The trad world has been impossibly archaic with their approach to everything. You'd think they'd apply strategy to selling their print-only titles. Honestly, I get the feeling this is a way for them to try to lure indies into eBook deals. I can only see that falling flat, if so.
 
#69 ·
bobbic said:
Yes, and if it doesn't stick *immediately* they are onto the next new thing. So shortsighted!
This is true of big business in general these days - you can certainly see it with Hollywood. Whether it's a book, a movie, a TV series, an album or a consumer product, there is (in general) no effort to build an audience, and no patience whatsoever. It's either a home run on day one, or it's dead. And how many great books, movies, products, etc would we not have today if this kind of thinking had been true 20, 30, 50 years ago?
 
#71 ·
Marian said:
I never had a traditional publisher make me change anything other than shorten the book. Editing suggestions were made. I took some and didn't take others. I didn't feel pressed.
That's exactly what my publishers were always making me do: shorten the book. One of my nonfiction William Stanek books is 1600 pages and 595K words.

As far as any editor ever forcing me to accept edits, I've never had that happen. That said, early in a career editors tend to be more forceful, as the years go on less so.
 
#72 ·
Hastings is a movie rental/buy place that also stocks books, music and some games.  They do have soda fountains in the front of every store.
 
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