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Beginning of the end for Indie writers

20K views 156 replies 70 participants last post by  Cherise 
#1 ·
The future looks bleak for Indie writers. Sales keep going down and expenses are going up. Then there are the scammers who keep the bucket leaking.

Do you think that this is the beginning of the end for Indie writers?
 
#6 ·
No. My own expenses were pretty minimal for a new business starting out. I've only got the one novel and it's selling, not a ton, but then again, my name is unknown. Still, I'm getting page reads, so people like it, and I'm getting buys, so people are interested in buying it. I have only scratched the surface on advertising. Figured I'd do more once I get more books written. I'm quite pleased with my current progress.

The door is opened for self-publishing and I don't see that door ever slamming shut again. If one service provider falters, others will step in because it's a hot market.
 
#11 ·


The gates are opening wider. There are people who never would have thought they could make this dream a reality, living their dream today. Everyone has different goals and for some selling a few books and making rent money is a dream come true, for others its making enough to buy a house, leave their day job etc.

Scammers are not going to stop this industry. Sales are going down for some authors. Sales are going up for others. There are more people realising that trad publishing is not for them. I see a future with more people accepting hybrid deals, more trad authors leaving that world and more ways to sell your stories.
 
#12 ·
We aren't in the prediction business, so... maybe?

What it means to be an indie author can change dramatically over the next few years, due in part to the problems Amazon is facing in delivering a legitimate service.  It might be an unrecognizable concept where we are not truly independent any longer.  They could make it easier to become published, but at a price that many here would balk at now, but won't have a choice as everyone else will be doing it.  Who knows.
 
#13 ·
* honeymoon phase has long been over
* we're in the commodification (saturation) phase right meow. I do believe this is going to wipe out a huge chunk of SP authors (at least those trying to write as more than just a hobby). Just not going to be worth their time to chase the rabbit down the hole anymore.

https://image.slidesharecdn.com/marketingmanagement2-160410102301/95/product-life-cycle-and-marketing-strategies-3-638.jpg?cb=1460283881

The typical product life cycle doesn't hold perfectly to books, which are an industry more than product, at least in the aggregate. But similar trends nonetheless apply.

The difference is that some will achieve escape velocity by having a unique offering. That's what's great about being a writer, if there's no one like you out there, then you have your own little market that can exist in its own little bubble untouched by market trends. Or put differently, it can weather the storm far easier.

This is why I've never understood the "write to market" logic (at least as it's typically communicated). It's like "hey, there's a super crowded market, I think I'll jump in there, not like it will get saturated at any point and commodify". All authors seem to be able to see is "omg, customers over there, must get to them to make money." Brilliant short-term strategy, questionable long-term strategy.

So, yes, I think the next 12-16 months is going to be brutal for a lot of people. But that doesn't mean good writers with great stories won't do just fine.

But those who have kept the train rolling through increased marketing spend and increased production schedules... you can't outswim the tsunami no matter how hard you try.

The only thing that will keep you alive is great books with great stories. (most/many) quality content providers will remain standing when it's all said and done.

(just so I'm clear, I'm not saying I won't drown in the tsunami or anything; just stating my view on the market as a whole).

The bots and silly chit going on in the market right meow are simply reflective of increasing pressures authors are finding themselves under. It's only going to get worse. But those with great stories will only do better and better as readers discover their works.

Slow and steady wins the race. Fast and nimble only works in nascent markets.
 
#15 ·
No, not the beginning of the end, more like the end of the beginning. (Get your cliches here, folks.) In other words, the gravy train days of publish, bag a spot on ENT and count the dollars are over. The industry is maturing, and those who want to make a career out of it are going to have to shift their approach.

But it's still fun, and it's still surely one of the easiest ways to turn a profit from something that most of us would be doing anyway. I have a couple of nieces who have their own businesses, one selling designer perfumes online, and another designing and making wedding and occasion stationery. What I do is way, way easier than what they do. I sit at my computer making up stories leaving Amazon to do the heavy lifting of shifting product for me, and they have to deal with suppliers, and clients, and packing and postage, or actually making the product. This is still a great life we have, folks.
 
#16 ·
No, but between widespread scamming within KU, botting of KU and free books, derankings and account closures hitting innocent authors, rampant miscategorization of books, and other problems, I would go so far as to say that Amazon is becoming a more and more difficult partner for indie authors to work with. That trend is somewhat alarming to me. I hope it gets better, not worse.
 
#17 ·
Seneca42 said:
* honeymoon phase has long been over
* we're in the commodification (saturation) phase right meow. I do believe this is going to wipe out a huge chunk of SP authors (at least those trying to write as more than just a hobby). Just not going to be worth their time to chase the rabbit down the hole anymore.

https://image.slidesharecdn.com/marketingmanagement2-160410102301/95/product-life-cycle-and-marketing-strategies-3-638.jpg?cb=1460283881

The typical product life cycle doesn't hold perfectly to books, which are an industry more than product, at least in the aggregate. But similar trends nonetheless apply.

The difference is that some will achieve escape velocity by having a unique offering. That's what's great about being a writer, if there's no one like you out there, then you have your own little market that can exist in its own little bubble untouched by market trends. Or put differently, it can weather the storm far easier.

This is why I've never understood the "write to market" logic (at least as it's typically communicated). It's like "hey, there's a super crowded market, I think I'll jump in there, not like it will get saturated at any point and commodify". All authors seem to be able to see is "omg, customers over there, must get to them to make money." Brilliant short-term strategy, questionable long-term strategy.

So, yes, I think the next 12-16 months is going to be brutal for a lot of people. But that doesn't mean good writers with great stories won't do just fine.

But those who have kept the train rolling through increased marketing spend and increased production schedules... you can't outswim the tsunami no matter how hard you try.

The only thing that will keep you alive is great books with great stories. (most/many) quality content providers will remain standing when it's all said and done.

(just so I'm clear, I'm not saying I won't drown in the tsunami or anything; just stating my view on the market as a whole).

The bots and silly chit going on in the market right meow are simply reflective of increasing pressures authors are finding themselves under. It's only going to get worse. But those with great stories will only do better and better as readers discover their works.

Slow and steady wins the race. Fast and nimble only works in nascent markets.
This is very encouraging to me. I write in a tough, tough genre to sell, and my sales have been horrible lately. But I write what I write, I'm working on some craft and presentation issues that might have been holding me back, I keep my expenses down as much as possible, except for a few brief (and underwhelming) experiments with Select I've been wide from the beginning and I'm staying wide, and I'm still writing and creating a backlist of my unique brand of books. If/when the shakeout happens, I'll still be here for anyone who wants to read the kind of books I write.
 
#20 ·
I have been publishing as an Indie since 2011. Kboads was a lot more enthusiastic then; now it is doom and gloom. New writers are flooding into the market so the competition keep increasing. There are already more books than buyers. So the future can't be great.
 
#22 ·
Sam Rivers said:
I have been publishing as an Indie since 2011. Kboads was a lot more enthusiastic then; now it is doom and gloom. New writers are flooding into the market so the competition keep increasing. There are already more books than buyers. So the future can't be great.
Doom and gloom about aspects of the current market. Unsustainability of the KU sub model in its current state. The march to trim royalties so as to combat scammers.

I would say the end is nigh for scammers, one way or the other. Authors? Nah. Some drop out, but that isn't death - it's just the natural pruining of authors who don't have the time to write.
 
#23 ·
Indies like us will be fine. Personally, I'd worry more about Trad pub; it's been going downhill for years, thanks to their reluctance to take risks on new series and authors, among other problems.
 
#24 ·
Sam Rivers said:
I have been publishing as an Indie since 2011. Kboads was a lot more enthusiastic then; now it is doom and gloom. New writers are flooding into the market so the competition keep increasing. There are already more books than buyers. So the future can't be great.
The easy money is evaporating. That's how all low-barrier-to-entry markets work as they mature.

Folks with good products and great marketing chops will always outlast those who are deficient in either (or both) of those areas.
 
#25 ·
Trad pubs have always had money on their side from hardback sales. With the move to digital, I can only imagine hardback sales are dropping - especially considering the close of physical bookstores in many places.

Trad pub pricing hardback prices are going into direct competition with indie digital pricing and I just can't see that working out long term for trad pubs.

The death of trad pubs? Of course not. But indies are going to knock them down like Ma Bell got broken up in the 80s.
 
#26 ·
Seneca42 said:
This is why I've never understood the "write to market" logic (at least as it's typically communicated). It's like "hey, there's a super crowded market, I think I'll jump in there, not like it will get saturated at any point and commodify". All authors seem to be able to see is "omg, customers over there, must get to them to make money." Brilliant short-term strategy, questionable long-term strategy.
1,000 thumbs up for this. ^

I've written dozens and dozens of novels over the past decade, but I've only read a handful of books, and mostly because there are few books I'd want to read on the market. Indie publishing allows these unique and interesting ideas and stories to be accessible to people who have thirsted for something new, or at the very least, something that isn't infected with clichés. Some of these authors may not be profitable because they don't market or their ideas are just a little "too" niche, but regardless, indie authors are here to stay. There is a need for us. As someone who always wanted to be an author growing up but never wanted to hand over creative control to a traditional publisher, I'm grateful for each book I sell and fan I gain. Writing may never make me rich, but it makes me happy. Thus, each dollar I make off of my books is a dollar I made doing something I love. I consider myself extremely lucky, and will be publishing books until they pull me away screaming. ;)
 
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