* honeymoon phase has long been over
* we're in the commodification (saturation) phase right meow. I do believe this is going to wipe out a huge chunk of SP authors (at least those trying to write as more than just a hobby). Just not going to be worth their time to chase the rabbit down the hole anymore.
https://image.slidesharecdn.com/marketingmanagement2-160410102301/95/product-life-cycle-and-marketing-strategies-3-638.jpg?cb=1460283881
The typical product life cycle doesn't hold perfectly to books, which are an industry more than product, at least in the aggregate. But similar trends nonetheless apply.
The difference is that some will achieve escape velocity by having a unique offering. That's what's great about being a writer, if there's no one like you out there, then you have your own little market that
can exist in its own little bubble untouched by market trends. Or put differently, it can weather the storm far easier.
This is why I've never understood the "write to market" logic (at least as it's typically communicated). It's like "hey, there's a super crowded market, I think I'll jump in there, not like it will get saturated at any point and commodify". All authors seem to be able to see is "omg, customers over there, must get to them to make money." Brilliant short-term strategy, questionable long-term strategy.
So, yes, I think the next 12-16 months is going to be brutal for a lot of people. But that doesn't mean good writers with great stories won't do just fine.
But those who have kept the train rolling through increased marketing spend and increased production schedules... you can't outswim the tsunami no matter how hard you try.
The only thing that will keep you alive is great books with great stories. (most/many) quality content providers will remain standing when it's all said and done.
(just so I'm clear, I'm not saying I won't drown in the tsunami or anything; just stating my view on the market as a whole).
The bots and silly chit going on in the market right meow are simply reflective of increasing pressures authors are finding themselves under. It's only going to get worse. But those with great stories will only do better and better as readers discover their works.
Slow and steady wins the race. Fast and nimble only works in nascent markets.