Author Topic: $2 million advance for debut author  (Read 1827 times)  

Offline markpauloleksiw

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$2 million advance for debut author
« on: October 19, 2020, 02:37:27 pm »
Here is the article. From other sources I read she is getting $2 million.

https://www.thebookseller.com/news/doubleday-triumphs-16-publisher-auction-garmus-life-affirming-d-1222221

The book will only be out in 2022. 

Can you imagine the marketing and hype that this is going to get?

Mark

P.S. I would love to see the business case to justify the spend/gamble.

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    Offline taytheking

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #1 on: October 19, 2020, 08:11:17 pm »
    Not much to justify. The big houses chose books they hype even if they are rather average. They will sell if enough money goes into advertising and hyping. An average book with an awesome cover and blurb can make them millions.The stock market is more unpredictable than this.

    James Patterson made 90 million last year. With ghostwriters. It's all a game of name and $ for ads.

    Just my humble opinion.

    But hey. Look at it from the bright side. We all have a chance at making bestsellers this way. The right combination of cover, blurb, ads, and ARCs and it might work. I doubt that I am one of the best writers in the world, so I find it nice that I still have chance at great success LOL

    Offline jb1111

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #2 on: October 19, 2020, 09:28:31 pm »
    It will be interesting to see how much it actually sells, and where it ranks on the big lists.

    Offline markpauloleksiw

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #3 on: October 19, 2020, 10:33:37 pm »
    It becomes a situation where it is "too much" money to fail. The rights holders have to pour in as much money as possible in advance to rationalize their investment. Once it launches, it is too late.

    Now a shrewd independent author who was in the same genre could ride the coattails of the marketing for this novel. I bet you there are authors seeing this coming in like 18 months who can take advantage of the lead time.

    It is great for the author but, strikes me as another sign that the dinosaurs don't even realize the meteor has hit yet.

    Mark


    Offline jb1111

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #4 on: October 20, 2020, 05:40:08 am »
    I was wondering about that lead time also.... I mean, the book won't come out until 2022? Depending on genre, tastes can alter in two years (or one and a half, depending on when they fire it off), especially when a lot of marketing capital is on the line...

    Offline Crystal_

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 10:01:10 am »
    Not much to justify. The big houses chose books they hype even if they are rather average. They will sell if enough money goes into advertising and hyping. An average book with an awesome cover and blurb can make them millions.The stock market is more unpredictable than this.

    James Patterson made 90 million last year. With ghostwriters. It's all a game of name and $ for ads.

    Just my humble opinion.

    I don't think that's really true. If it was easy for publishers to guarantee a hit (or a profit), we'd see more hits, and publishers wouldn't be failing.

    I'm sure they expect to make a profit but that doesn't mean they well. Books with huge advances fail too.

    Offline jvin248

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 12:37:48 pm »
    .

    Huge advance is due to bidding between the Traditional publishers -- stuck in a microcosm.

    Great for the author. Now she needs to repeat the the effort to follow up.

    That lead time is a killer, but Indies already knew that.


    .
           

    Offline nightwork

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 08:03:10 pm »

    Now a shrewd independent author who was in the same genre could ride the coattails of the marketing for this novel. I bet you there are authors seeing this coming in like 18 months who can take advantage of the lead time.


    Mark

    how? it sounds boring as ****

    i can understand a million bucks for something like The Chain, which has a thrilling premise

    this smacks of money-laundering to some relative of somebody in the industry

    we can't build on that because there are no real readers interested in a story about julia childs inspiring american housewives to change their lives... by cooking... in other words, by not changing a thing... only wait for it, it isn't julia childs it's fiction

    Offline Trioxin 245

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 12:20:45 am »
    Its like the music industry years ago. They would sign loads of artist and one would eventually hit big. Its no different than self publishing either. Ask any author about their most successful book, I bet they thought it was do OK. Its why you need to continue hitting the publish button, the big hit may be right around the corner.

    Offline Louis_Park

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #9 on: October 21, 2020, 02:57:29 am »
    I tend to think of Nassim Taleb's Black Swan theory for Traditional Publishing. Traditional Publishing is one of the areas where it is very applicable. Because of the randomness and improbability of making a huge return from an author, betting that large seems quite daft. Then, again, as someone said "money laundering". I'd think perhaps it would be for avoiding taxes, as I think you can claim losses from one subsidiary business as a means to avoid taxes on the conglomerate as a whole. So maybe in that circumstance making such big and stupid bets will be less of a gamble. I am guessing because Doubleday is "owned" by someone else, then the parent company can do this. I know this is done a lot in property, so I imagine it is applicable elsewhere.

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #10 on: October 21, 2020, 06:07:23 am »
    Not much to justify. The big houses chose books they hype even if they are rather average. They will sell if enough money goes into advertising and hyping. An average book with an awesome cover and blurb can make them millions.The stock market is more unpredictable than this.

    James Patterson made 90 million last year. With ghostwriters. It's all a game of name and $ for ads.

    Just my humble opinion.

    But hey. Look at it from the bright side. We all have a chance at making bestsellers this way. The right combination of cover, blurb, ads, and ARCs and it might work. I doubt that I am one of the best writers in the world, so I find it nice that I still have chance at great success LOL

    "James Patterson made 90 million last year. With ghostwriters. It's all a game of name and $ for ads."  This comparison is inapt.  Patterson is a known quantity, pretty much a household name.  Plus, he's responsible for a lot of his own marketing.  The article is about a first-time (i.e., unknown) author, and the publisher will organize the bulk of the advertising.

    "We all have a chance at making bestsellers this way."  What way?  Being signed by a major publisher for $2 million?  For 99% of us, that ship has sailed.  We're out here in the trenches, 'doing it for ourselves.'  Sure, any of us can write a best-selling book, but it won't happen by having a publishing company shovel money at us and do all the heavy lifting.
    Jena

    Offline markpauloleksiw

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #11 on: October 21, 2020, 08:14:03 am »
    Reread the background story.

    The literary agent is a celeb. Older sister of Emily Blunt and spouse of Stanley Tucci.  She took on the author having not read a full manuscript.

    I think the manuscript has not even been completed yet....hence the 2022 date.

    Also, I agree that the plot of the book seems really unoriginal...and kind of outdated...as pointed out...it sounds like Julia Child....


    Mark

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #12 on: October 23, 2020, 02:39:13 pm »
    Reread the background story.

    The literary agent is a celeb. Older sister of Emily Blunt and spouse of Stanley Tucci.  She took on the author having not read a full manuscript.

    I think the manuscript has not even been completed yet....hence the 2022 date.

    Also, I agree that the plot of the book seems really unoriginal...and kind of outdated...as pointed out...it sounds like Julia Child....


    Mark

    I would bet my chips on this theory that the author was not stranger pulled out of the ether for talent alone.
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    Offline Trioxin 245

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #13 on: October 24, 2020, 12:33:37 am »
    Authors on Kboards= I know if my book took off, people would love it and it would become an international bestseller. One day it will happen and my writing can be see by everyone!

    Also Authors on Kboards.= Did you hear about that author who did really well? Its not fair and I will tell you why!!


    PLUS

    Authors on Kboards= I've written a sci-fi mystery with elves, mafia tie-ins, a bdsm alpha captain and intergalactic waitress. Think Star Wars meets Last of the Mohicans meets 50 shades meets LOTR.

    Authors on Kboards seeing a book written to market doing well.= System is definitely rigged.
    « Last Edit: October 24, 2020, 12:36:58 am by Trioxin 245 »

    Offline nail file

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #14 on: October 24, 2020, 04:20:38 am »
    ^^^ This.

    Offline ShayneRutherford

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #15 on: October 24, 2020, 09:18:20 am »
    ^^^ Yep.
             

    Offline Wayne Stinnett

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #16 on: October 24, 2020, 11:34:54 am »
    Hopefully, she sets that $2M aside. It might have to last through 2024. It might not even earn out the advance.
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    Offline CassieL

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #17 on: October 24, 2020, 12:40:57 pm »
    I think the manuscript has not even been completed yet....hence the 2022 date.

    This comment tells me you aren't familiar with how trade publishing works. It's the norm for there to be about a two year lead time for publication of any title because there's an entire process of editing and industry reviews that need to happen in advance of a release.

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    Offline foxinabox

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #18 on: October 24, 2020, 03:07:21 pm »
    As of little we know about the story, I really wonder if this books sells at all in Europe. Our current time is full of the same conflicts to the brim, I dont feel the need to read again about some white housewive discovering and fighting for independence couple of decades ago. And for sure not in 2022. Only god knows what will happen in the world until then ... BUT: Good for her. Wouldnt mind to sell a script for such an amount of money, too. ;D
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    Offline JTSkye

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #19 on: October 24, 2020, 03:23:39 pm »
    I am glad many of you have the intuition and experience to see into this.  I don't have that depth of expeirence.  I just can't fathom that much up front for that timeline.  I guess I'm just stuck in my Indie world and enjoying my own writing journey.  Yes, money is important to me, but I get a blast out of sharing my stories with others.  Best to you all. 
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    Offline Crystal_

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    Re: $2 million advance for debut author
    « Reply #20 on: October 24, 2020, 03:59:18 pm »
    Isn't sci-fi romance a relatively popular genre? I think it's mostly alpha aliens, not sexy space captains though.

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