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Content => Book Klubs => Book Klub: The Signal and the Noise => Topic started by: Eltanin Publishing on December 03, 2012, 06:20:59 am

Title: Week 4: Chapters 6 & 7
Post by: Eltanin Publishing on December 03, 2012, 06:20:59 am
I've got to do some other things this morning, and will post some discussion thoughts later today. But I wanted to get this thread started. Anyone else want to start? Anyone have first-hand opinions about the 2009 flu pandemic that never was? I've got a bottle of hand sanitizer on my desk that is left over from then. Did the media/government/someone overhype it and cause unnecessary worry? Or was it good practice for some future pandemic? I know my workplace began discussing more seriously what would happen in a pandemic, and how they'd keep things running (some people working from home, etc.).
Title: Re: Week 4: Chapters 6 & 7
Post by: hsuthard on December 03, 2012, 10:31:56 am
Sorry, I got sidetracked with the new Stephanie Plum, Michael Connelly, and Harry Dresden novels! I'll catch up tomorrow and be back soon :)
Title: Re: Week 4: Chapters 6 & 7
Post by: Ann in Arlington on December 03, 2012, 03:57:36 pm
I remember all the hype about that 'flu that never materialized.  I don't usually get flu shots and people would look at me like I was a leper if I said I hadn't had one. :o  I also very very very rarely get sick with more than a cold (knock wood).   

I'm still in chapter 7 which I'm finding very interesting -- about Bayesian probability theory.
Title: Re: Week 4: Chapters 6 & 7
Post by: Eltanin Publishing on December 05, 2012, 05:27:14 am
I've never gotten a flu shot, either. I know I probably should. My mother has an egg allergy, and so never got a flu shot, and although I don't have an egg allergy, I guess her habits trickled down. I heard on the news that scientists feel this year's shot is a good match for the flu (as Silver said, the virus mutates each year, so they have to guess what it's going to do and make a vaccine ahead of time, so I guess it's not always a good match).

So, which is worse - a "false alarm" (predicting a worse disease outbreak than what actually happens), or the opposite - failing to predict a really bad outbreak? Of course Silver wants a more accurate prediction - getting it right.