Watching Mahaney get to his numbers makes for interesting reading, if you enjoy reading analyst reports: He derives the 500,000 number via a filing by Amazon partner Sprint (S), which handles the wireless service for the e-books. And he gets to the $1.2 billion number by assuming that Kindle adoption will be similar to that of Apple's (AAPL) music player several years ago, and that Kindle owners will buy a digital book each month. (Click chart to enlarge)
Kindle owners will buy a digital book each month? Apparently, he's never visited kindleboards.ProfCrash said:
You missed the first line of the graph, where it says (in thousands), so that's actually $87.5M. Then you also have to note that they amortize that revenue over two years (listed in the line above), so you double it to $177M (the line above the two-year note). That comes out to $350 per unit.robin.goodfellow said:It is interesting. Of course, according to the graph (if I'm reading it correctly), the revenue for FY2008 on half a million kindles was $87,500? I had to have read that wrong. That comes out to a profit of seventeen cents per unit.