[Sam Frank]

I started publishing ebooks at Amazon in 2011. That was before Select and you weren't allowed to give books away. You had to charge at least $.99. I started making money since I had a backlog of books that I had written. The golden years came, and everyone was happy and made money. A few writers found a way to give away books and that helped them. Then Select let everyone give books away and our sales went up.

A point was reached when sales started going down. So, lots of people starting advertising to help their sales. That helped the ones that advertised so many people started doing it. Then sales started dropping again.

Each year sales continued to drop regardless of what we did.

The number of book stores and publishing companies went out of business. We weren't the only one's suffering.

That makes me wonder if people have stopped reading books or reading less.

There are lots of other entertainment that people can do that competes with reading. Magazines have also not done well and there aren't a lot of them any more. I read the other day that DVDs made go out of business due to streaming.

So where does this leave authors? I think you know the answer to that question.

 

[travelinged]

Don NOT confuse Amazon shoppers with the universe of readers. Worldwide most reports indicate that audiobook sales are UP. Ebook sales are UP. Print sales stable.

Video tape went out of business because of DVDs. Record companies made massive readjustments due to CDs and then streaming. People didn't stop watching video or listening to music. They changed the HOW.

People read differently (serialization is booming for instance) and there are a lot more authors, so each author probably does sell less. But that just means your books have to be good. Better than before.

APA's April StatShot: $84 million ebook revenue. In the same month Kindle Unlimited paid out $41 million to indie authors and small presses - The New Publishing Standard

Even without knowing the KU and a la carte APub numbers (which we can see from ebook chart rankings will be substantial) it is patently obvious that the real value of the ebook market is significantly higher than the APA number the trade journals are reporting. The latest APA StatShot, for April...

thenewpublishingstandard.com

 

[ImaWriter]

Have people stopped reading books? NOPE!

I read just as much as I have most of my life. And I could name about 10 people in my personal circle of friends and family who will tell you the same.

Nothing will ever compete with reading for me, and I bet there are a whole lot of people who feel the same.

 

[Sam Frank]

I should have said that people are not buying books. They can get free books at the library.

 

[travelinged]

Based on your OP you should be saying people have stopped buying books on Amazon, which isn't true either.

 

[Lorri Moulton]

As new authors enter the market, it becomes more difficult to compete without finding an advantage. Whether this is spending more money on advertising and promotions, writing more books, interacting with readers, etc. that depends on the author and his/her business plan.

And the increase in food prices, gasoline, and other goods means that disposable income for many people is going down. This will impact many industries including ours. As people have less money, free books, libraries, and used books will help fill the void of less paid books.

This is an industry with little to no barriers to entry...which means almost anyone can write a book and publish it. This meant a lot of new authors entered the market over the past few years. As competition increases for those sales, some authors will leave the market. Depending on if/when people have more disposable income, there could be better sales for the remaining authors in the future.

This is all very general, basic economics class information. Of course, there are some authors who will continue to sell and make a great profit. But overall, the market will probably be more challenging for many of us in the short run.

 

[Sam Frank]

Based on your OP you should be saying people have stopped buying books on Amazon, which isn't true either.

Why?

 

[Darryl Hughes]

Based on your OP you should be saying people have stopped buying books on Amazon, which isn't true either.

No, they just stopped buying mine. LOL.

Dee

 

[Darryl Hughes]

Why?

Because books are still selling, it's just that some authors on the board (including myself) have noticed an unusual drop off in their sales/KENP reads the last few months (since march) which no one can find an explanation for or a remedy to fix.

Dee

 

[Darryl Hughes]

As new authors enter the market, it becomes more difficult to compete without finding an advantage. Whether this is spending more money on advertising and promotions, writing more books, interacting with readers, etc. that depends on the author and his/her business plan.

And the increase in food prices, gasoline, and other goods means that disposable income for many people is going down. This will impact many industries including ours. As people have less money, free books, libraries, and used books will help fill the void of less paid books.

This is an industry with little to no barriers to entry...which means almost anyone can write a book and publish it. This meant a lot of new authors entered the market over the past few years. As competition increases for those sales, some authors will leave the market. Depending on if/when people have more disposable income, there could be better sales for the remaining authors in the future.

This is all very general, basic economics class information. Of course, there are some authors who will continue to sell and make a great profit. But overall, the market will probably be more challenging for many of us in the short run.

This is probably the answer to the question of what's going on with sales/KENP reads falling off recently: New authors entering the market and it becoming more difficult to compete without an advantage. Unfortunately the remedy to this (spending more money on advertising and promotion, etc) in this economy with inflation and prices for everything going up, makes the cure almost as bad as problem.

Dee

 

[jb1111]

The trads say they have lower sales, if that's any indicator. The economy is down, and everything today is "content", and there is more competition in every field of "content", be it books, videos, music, radio, TV, movies, news, sports, what have you.

The economy is down, the good weather is here in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere, and all of those might be factors in what many are seeing.

 

[travelinged]

Why?

Because your references in that post were all to Amazon sales. But sales data from PW and other sources suggests that overall, that picture isn't accurate.

The trads say they have lower sales, if that's any indicator. The economy is down, and everything today is "content", and there is more competition in every field of "content", be it books, videos, music, radio, TV, movies, news, sports, what have you.

The economy is down, the good weather is here in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere, and all of those might be factors in what many are seeing.

Yes, there is more competition. But the trads tend to complain about sales constantly. And they are obscure in their reporting. Independent studies suggest book sales are going up. But with so many new books going on the market every day, the sales of any particular book are probably down.

Extrapolating these perception into some snapshot of the market doesn't mean much anyway. If you have a bestseller, sales are fine. If no one buys your book, the market is down.

 

[Doglover]

I started publishing ebooks at Amazon in 2011. That was before Select and you weren't allowed to give books away. You had to charge at least $.99. I started making money since I had a backlog of books that I had written. The golden years came, and everyone was happy and made money. A few writers found a way to give away books and that helped them. Then Select let everyone give books away and our sales went up.

A point was reached when sales started going down. So, lots of people starting advertising to help their sales. That helped the ones that advertised so many people started doing it. Then sales started dropping again.

Each year sales continued to drop regardless of what we did.

The number of book stores and publishing companies went out of business. We weren't the only one's suffering.

That makes me wonder if people have stopped reading books or reading less.

There are lots of other entertainment that people can do that competes with reading. Magazines have also not done well and there aren't a lot of them any more. I read the other day that DVDs made go out of business due to streaming.

So where does this leave authors? I think you know the answer to that question.

I think small book stores closed down because more people are buying online. More people are also buying ebooks rather than print. I also think the genre that used to sell no longer does as well. Magazines have always been a waste of paper, but that's just my opinion.

I should have said that people are not buying books. They can get free books at the library.

We don't have as many libraries - at least not in the UK - and the ones we do have are too small to be of much use. One library I went into, in a fair sized little town, had fiction arranged in categories, but non-fiction in one category, entitle non-fiction. So, the cookery books are next to the history books.

 

[Decon]

The simple answer is NO. not as a market as a whole;

Have sales of individuals who self-publish books dropped? The answer is YES for many over the years, but not for all as the market for self-published books has developed.

In the bubble universe of Amazon publishing, from inception their catalogue has grown exponentially over the years, increasing competition.

At the same time, much of the catalogue of older books languish in the great slush pile of the internet algorithm malaise of what is the Amazon catalogue. Many will never to see the light of day again, with many authors over the years abandoning marketing and maybe moving on to other efforts outside publishing. Equally, those authors with a backlist, their older books, have to compete with newer offerings from a new slew of authors and those who have survived the wild west days and ones who continue to publish maybe concentrating marketing budget and efforts on their newer works?.

The problem is as always, is that out of the millions of books in the Amazon catalogue and the amount of marketed new books, it is difficult to get into and stay in say the top 50,000 overall chart where money is made,(?) for any length of time. Never mind the ever changing trends in the market and marketing requirements to get there.

From a search of the internet, they estimate the global market for books in 2021 at $138.5 billion.

For 2022, the estimate is for $142.33 billion. That's despite the pandemic and the current economy causing drastic ups and downs.

By 2030 it is expected to grow to $164.22 billion with more than 1 billion books sold, up from 900 million today..

The interesting take from that is that from 2021 to 2930 the growth rate is only 1.9%. When set against the current inflation rate this year, the growth in actual sales will depend on holding publishing costs below inflation.

Search the internet for "Global book market" to confirm the estimated growth
.

 

[Sam Frank]

We don't have as many libraries - at least not in the UK - and the ones we do have are too small to be of much use. One library I went into, in a fair sized little town, had fiction arranged in categories, but non-fiction in one category, entitle non-fiction. So, the cookery books are next to the history books.

Libraries are popular in this country and carry hard back books, paperback books, DVDs, CDs, e-books, audio books and other features. Our library doesn't even charge fines if the item is late. We mainly get DVDs since they have so many and can get others we want from other libraries. I get ebooks from the large library in the state capital.

 

[jb1111]

From a search of the internet, they estimate the global market for books in 2021 at $138.5 billion.

For 2022, the estimate is for $142.33 billion. That's despite the pandemic and the current economy causing drastic ups and downs.

By 2030 it is expected to grow to $164.22 billion with more than 1 billion books sold, up from 900 million today..

The interesting take from that is that from 2021 to 2930 the growth rate is only 1.9%. When set against the current inflation rate this year, the growth in actual sales will depend on holding publishing costs below inflation.

Search the internet for "Global book market" to confirm the estimated growth
.

The problem with prognostication about things like this is that there are so many variables that could change it. I saw one article quoting a poll or study that showed that younger people don't read as much as over 40's.

That could be as problematic for the book industry as the rise of the streaming music business model was for the music industry. As tastes in the means of accessing and consuming entertainment change, the content producers also have to adapt -- and even if they do, it doesn't necessarily follow that they will be making the same money they made one or two decades previous.

 

[travelinged]

The problem with prognostication about things like this is that there are so many variables that could change it. I saw one article quoting a poll or study that showed that younger people don't read as much as over 40's.

That could be as problematic for the book industry as the rise of the streaming music business model was for the music industry. As tastes in the means of accessing and consuming entertainment change, the content producers also have to adapt -- and even if they do, it doesn't necessarily follow that they will be making the same money they made one or two decades previous.

You are right about the number of variables. Prediction is tricky in any industry (except maybe for VHS...)
But your last observation changes the fundamental questions. Yes content producers not make the same money they made before, HOWEVER, new content producers will be earning money. Until the population shrinks and discretionary spending falls, the overall market will go up. That means there are opportunities for us. The take from a best selling novel might fall, but people are spending on backlists (which is relatively new) and that means earning a living is more likely.

 

[hopecartercan]

...The take from a best selling novel might fall, but people are spending on backlists (which is relatively new) and that means earning a living is more likely.

The backlist is saving my butt this year.

 

[jb1111]

HOWEVER, new content producers will be earning money. Until the population shrinks and discretionary spending falls, the overall market will go up. That means there are opportunities for us. The take from a best selling novel might fall, but people are spending on backlists (which is relatively new) and that means earning a living is more likely.

I agree. There really is no alternative.

 

[unkownwriter]

Nobody reads anymore. That's why we're all quitting writing, publishers are closed, magazines have folded, newspapers and websites have disappeared. Shame, but it's a hard world.

The main reason most see sales decline over these past dozen or so years? More competition. Back in 2011, ebooks weren't common. People have fewer ways to get them out there, while readers were crazy for more books. You could almost upload any old thing, no matter how bad it was, and it would sell or get downloads.

I remember looking all over for books to read on my Palm TX, because I love to read. And there weren't a lot. Most were utter crap, though you'd find a few places with trad pub books. I used to get some from Tor back then.