Is Indie Publishing dead? My Guest Post with Scott Nicholson

I assume it's a two way street. While NY learns how to better do what indies are doing, indies will improve what they are doing. Instead of getting eight out of ten books rejected, they get to put all of them out there, and they get to see which ones don't work, and they get reviews which hopefully tell them why, and they adapt. IMO, indie publishing will evolve into a sophisticated world in which everyone gets their rightful share. Write well, work hard to promote, you'll get your money. Write poorly, blame the system instead of improving, sit on your butt when you should be promoting, and you won't.

But that only applies to e-books. IMO, the printed books which require up front capital to make big enough runs to make then cost efficient enough for everyone to make money, will always be controlled by some form of agents and NY publishing. That said, if indie authors like us all got together and shopped around for the best collective deal from a printing house and cover art studios, organized ourselves so that all our business would go to the same printer, the quantities of printed books might be sufficient enough to entice one of these self-pub printers to give us a group discount. It may never rival the NY pubs, but it might drop the price of printed books enough to make them far more enticing than they are now.

With all respect to Mr. Nicholson, I have to disagree.

If NY trad publishers were to transform themselves into a few geeks sitting in front of computer screens hawking backlist titles as ebooks, then they'd no longer be NY trad publishers. They would be just marketing geeks, backed by a lot of cash to publicize a giant number of ebooks.

But they'd still have this problem, which each of US does not:

They'd be hawking a zillion titles.

We're only hawking our own.

WE can focus our resources, hone our marketing pitches, define and target our audiences -- individually, thoughtfully, meticulously. We can also adjust our efforts on the fly whenever something isn't working right. We can try out new covers, new blurbs, new price points.

But the NY version of the Geek Squad would have no such luxuries. They'd still be forced to promote a host of titles from a horde of authors, each targeting diverse readerships. So, realistically, how much time, and what percentage of resources, could they devote to any given author or title? Almost zip...unless your name is Patterson or Evanovich or King. In other words: same as they do NOW.

Moreover, big corporations are bureaucracies, where each participant clings desperately to his title, office, salary, and perks. How does any massive, disruptive transition to a lean, mean, marketing machine actually transpire, when everyone now working in the Big 6 will be fighting the changes every step of the way?

So, my answer to this bogeyman threat is: Bring it on.

I'm betting that they can't pull it off. What they'll do is use the indie bestseller lists as their new "slush pile" (as Robin Sullivan has pointed out), and then try to seduce successful indie authors into their fold with much better deals than they now offer. And for many authors, there's nothing wrong with accepting a good deal from a trad publisher.

But demolish the indie market? Fat chance. I'd be happy to wager about that, if I can find any suckers willing to take the bet.

I don't see big publishers lowering the price on ebook versions except for backlist for some time.  I understand their problem since once they lower the ebook price by too much for new titles--they expect they will lose HC sales which has been a good money maker for them over the years. I don't see publishers pricing fresh fiction ebooks at 2.99 or 3.99 or 4.99 in the near future.  

Last year publishers put out 47,392 new fiction titles according to Bowkers and out of that only 103 or so sold 100K. Blockbusters.  Most others are lucky to sell 5000 copies though some will sell much better and some much worse.

Turning big publishing around is like trying to turn an aircraft carrier around on a dime.

Publishers have to work at marketing those 47K fiction titles while the author can focus on 1 or 2.  Big difference no matter how much $ the pubs have to spend.

Even with that output there are still niches and nooks and crannies they miss.  Yet, these same small sweet spots might be able to sell 20K ebooks at 3.99.  Too small for the aircraft carrier but just fine for the writer in a 12 ft skiff.

I think today an author has to be aware and flexible and keep adapting.

The very strengths that big publishers have are their weaknesses.

I think, realistically, the lower limit of what NY can charge for ebooks is higher than what we can charge. If they are selling @$.99, and the author is getting, what, 5, 10 cents? That writer is going to push for a minimum price for each version written into his or her contract. Or they'll go indie.

Also, in general, indies have a few things holding us back, but the advantages we have far outweigh those. We can keep clients (readers) *and* providers (writers) happy. We can put out a book a month if we're able/ willing. We can charge what we want, so far as readers are willing to pay it, and get the whole "royalty" from it. And our low overhead helps, too.

I don't think NY is going to open up hundreds or thousands of e-only slots any time soon. Even the bigger epubs don't have *that* many books coming out. They have too many other costs--slush, editors, typesetters, accounting departments, marketing departments, cover artists (some of whom charge a heck of a lot more than $100 a cover), more editors...

Indies need... Um... editing (if they can't trade with another writer or an english teacher) and a cover (if they can't do it). The rest? No slush, Word does the "typesetting", formatting is easy or cheap, and accounting happens about 4 times a year, which the self-employed are already dealing with--another couple hours isn't that bad.

Sure, NY'll change. It'll become more competitive. It'll snag indies that are doing well. But it won't be able to release a book from someones fave author every other month forever, because they just can't make that much space. The music biz got a bit better, movies chug along like they always do. Indie is still the same for both.

Did that make any sense? Haven't had caffeine yet.