Latest crazy theroy on Amazon paperback rankings

709 Views 9 Replies 3 Participants Last post by JennyJ, Jan 8, 2013

Joe_Nobody

Discussion Starter · Jan 8, 2013

I can't help it - I plot, track and analyze sales, rankings, returns, trends and just about every other number exposed in this crazy business.
Mostly this is done so we can verify the success of various marketing efforts, such as paid banner ads and the like.

Just when I think I've nailed Amazon's algorithms, it seems they change or some other variable discredits my equations.
I've even considered hiring a mystic, contracting for a seance with Albert Einstein so he can help me with the math.

Something drastic changed in late November, and I think I've finally figured out what it is.

For those who track such things, take you sales from 7 days ago and apply it to today's rankings. This would make sense given Amazon's return policy of same number of days, and rumors of people gaming that system on a massive scale.

I've also noticed that my sales are stronger, but my rankings keep dropping like a stone. Other than the obvious flood of classics dropping into Amazon every day, I have no other explanation for this.

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Joe_Nobody

Discussion Starter · #2 · Jan 8, 2013

My apologies...I was referring to paperback sales. I'll edit the post.

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· #3 · Jan 8, 2013

I think we've had this conversation before. Ranking is not simply determined by your number of sales in a void. It is determined on your sales in relation to both everyone else's and total sales volume.

We just came out of December, traditionally the biggest month for book sales. Print books, in particular, are big gift items. It is perfectly logical that it would require more sales to maintain a sales rank during a high volume sales period.

During a slow sales period, five sales can make your rank jump by 100,000's a places. During a busy sales period, your sales volume could double but still see your rank not move, or even go down.

There is no conspiracy or anything. It is the nature of the beast.

If you are trying to track the success of ads, do what I do and use your Amazon affiliate links in the ads. That way you can see sales live. But I wouldn't use sales rank as a factor because you don't know how many total books Amazon is selling to make it valuable (unless you are in the top 100 of a category).

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Joe_Nobody

Discussion Starter · #4 · Jan 8, 2013

I'm aware of the relationship to the sales of other books and the statistical implications.

I'm not concerned about one books ranking in the river of Amazon sales, but the sub-sampling within my seven books.

For example:

Jan 2, 2013
Book One, paperback rank 5,000, sales at 45 copies that day.
Book Two, paperback rank 6,000, sales at 33 copies that day.

Jan 7, 2013
Book One, paperback rank 9,000, sales at 48 copies per day.
Book Two, paperback rank 13,000, sales at 74 copies that day.

Book two, on the 7th, should have a higher ranking than #1. I didn't want to bore everyone by posting each day's sales, but book two had been outselling book one for most of the week. The number of reviews and total sales overall (factors in rank I believe) are very similar between the books.

Thus - my position that the number of works selling in front of me have nothing to do with what I'm seeing, other than the relationship to Amazon as a whole.
I've taken all seven of my books and applied today's rankings to the sales from seven days ago. The numbers match quite well going back to November 26th.

As far as links, when we run an ad on most blogs and 3rd party web pages, THEY want the Amazon affiliate link, so THEY can get the commission. We also run many printed ads, podcast messages and other forms on non-linkable media.

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· #5 · Jan 8, 2013

Joe_Nobody said:
For example:

Jan 2, 2013
Book One, paperback rank 5,000, sales at 45 copies that day.
Book Two, paperback rank 6,000, sales at 33 copies that day.

Jan 7, 2013
Book One, paperback rank 9,000, sales at 48 copies per day.
Book Two, paperback rank 13,000, sales at 74 copies that day.

Book one has been on the market longer and has more overall sales (I assume) than book two. If this is from the popularity list, then it is encompassing the books entire sales history and not the sales of a single day.

I wouldn't overthink it. People spend too much time worrying about Amazon algorithms. If you are selling over a 100 PRINT BOOKS PER DAY I would think you would be too busy counting your money to worry about it. ::)

And when I PAY for an ad, I damn well get to decide where it links to. If the blog wants the affiliate link, then I want the ad space for free.

They are already getting paid by me. They don't get to dictate the terms of the link. Again, if you are getting 100+ sales a DAY, you are leaving money on the table not using your own affiliate account.

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JennyJ

· #6 · Jan 8, 2013

yep

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Joe_Nobody

Discussion Starter · #7 · Jan 8, 2013

Shirl Anders said:
When are you taking the ranking reading? The day of your 74 sales or the day after? Typically it takes Ammy a full half day to start really seeing the rank change on bigger sales spurts. Maybe more like 15 to 24 hours sometimes. Also you said you take into account the overall sales of books which should be way higher and increasing for a while. Gift card being used after xmas, I'd think.

So if you see those 74 sales in your report then go look at your ranking it might not be reflecting in the ranking yet.

I agree that at one time there was a 15-24 hour delay, but in my case that no longer seems to hold true.

#2 started outselling #1 on Jan 2, and has every single day since. The total sales of both books is very close (within 3%). The total number of reviews for both books is very close. I should see #2 with a higher ranking as of today - if my theory is correct - regardless of today's sales.

The only way I can get daily rankings to match sales is to compare current rank to sales from seven days ago.

Julie is right, I am overthinking this and shouldn't bother - but then what's the fun in that?

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Christian Price

· #8 · Jan 8, 2013

Joe_Nobody...I bet this is just a pen name for Chuck Norris?? Right, Chuck is that you...Big Fan!!!

LOL kidding, your numbers always impress me Joe and remind me of what is possible in this business.

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Joe_Nobody

Discussion Starter · #9 · Jan 8, 2013

Christian Price said:
Joe_Nobody...I bet this is just a pen name for Chuck Norris?? Right, Chuck is that you...Big Fan!!! LOL kidding, your numbers always impress me Joe and remind me of what is possible in this business.

LMAO....no, I'm taller than Chuck...

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JennyJ

· #10 · Jan 8, 2013

yep

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