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I think it will be sooner.  Amazon would want their tablet to be available as a back-to-school gift, so I'm guessing they'd want to release it before September.

Plus, Amazon's already started hiring hundreds of people in new "order fulfillment centers" around the country.  So Amazon obviously expects a big spike in orders very soon, and I predict the tablet will be released on:  July 1 of 2011.  
 
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