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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I have been thinking about this and here is what I think happened.

Amazon had planned to release the K2 in time for Christmas 08 but then Oprah decided to feature the K1 on her show.
Amazon thought great, this will help us unload the remaining K1s (which they had already stopped making) and get the word out. They completely underestimated the power of Oprah and were overwhelmed with the response. They also realized how many angry new Kindle owners they might have if they released the K2 just a month after hyping the sales for K1. But they had no where near the inventory to fulfill the existing orders. What to do? They decided to wait it out. Let as much time pass as they could, extend the waiting periods for new orders and then just hope that those who bought the K1's back in October would be so attached to their K's that they would not care too much.

What they could not foresee is there are customers out there that still want their K1, that have been looking at the pics on the home page for months and reading everything they could online about it and still want what they ordered. Some have invested in accessories in anticipation and are now bitter and angry that they may not get what they ordered. I think this might be a small group of the many that are waiting but still a significant group that they may not be prepared to satisfy. It is maybe to their credit that the original product is still desirable and as one of the many who bought mine in October, right after the Oprah plug. I have not regrets and am happy to wear out my classic before I upgrade.

In my mind this is a case of "careful what you wish for" and a lack of gadget marketing experience for Amazon.
 

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That certainly seems reasonable. The one thing I don't get...how could they underestimate the power of Oprah? The woman turns books into bestsellers overnight.

I have to say, when all the dust settles, this whole experience will make for a very interesting MBA case study!

L
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
I am sure they still thought her influence, is only over a bunch of housewives and a 14.00 paperback is not a 300.00+ gadget...
For me it had nothing to do with Oprah, I was already interested in the Kindle, it was the $50.00 discount! If anything, what they should learn from this, is if they knocked the price down $50 or so, they would probably sell thousands more. I think 299.00 would make a huge difference for many who are on the fence. That is just six 9.99 kindle books.
 

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There was a huge surge in orders when the price dropped to $359. There was a second huge surge when Chase offered the $100 credit card promotion. The third huge surge was with Oprah and the $50 discount. And then they went out of stock.

L
 

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I do think they underestimated the power of Oprah a bit. . . .I mean, she made major headlines a few years ago during the mad cow thing when she said, gee, I think I'll stop eating beef. .  . .the majority of her millions of viewers did too and the beef people sued her for damaging their product!

OTOH, as someone pointed out, influencing people to NOT buy something or to buy a $15 book is very different to influencing someone to spend $300 on a 'don't really need it' gadget in a stalling economy.  But, wow.  So Amazon expected to have enough 'new' stock to sell into early 2009 when they planned to release K2 -- remember Bezos had been saying since August or so to expect K2 in 2009 at the earliest -- but the demand was higher than expected and they ran out early.  They offered refurbished models but I guess they have to keep spares around in order to be able to support their warranty if one goes bad.  The question is:  will there be new K1's available for those already on the list who prefer it to K2, and how will Amazon handle/price them. 

Oh, and I kind of feel like people will not simply receive the K2.  That would be Amazon sending you a product you did not order. . .not a good idea in the mail order game as an argument could be made that you don't have to pay for it.  You received it unsolicited, so it's a gift. . . .not sure that would hold water, but why even go there. . . .

Just musings. . .I guess we'll know in 24 hours. . . .

Ann
 

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Ann Von Hagel said:
Oh, and I kind of feel like people will not simply receive the K2. That would be Amazon sending you a product you did not order. . .not a good idea in the mail order game as an argument could be made that you don't have to pay for it. You received it unsolicited, so it's a gift. . . .not sure that would hold water, but why even go there. . . .
It totally holds water with me! If I get a 'newer version' of Kindle I won't feel like I got something I did not order.

I did not order "Kindle 1". I ordered an e-reader from Amazon with a fairly good variety of available content. Which is exactly what I will end up with - no matter what it looks like. I don't know how ergonomic it will be, but I didn't know the answer to that question when I placed the order anyway. I can return it if it's not good for me....but I kind of doubt I will want to return it :D
 

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It will be interesting what they decide to do with K1 and K2. Sony is still selling the PRS-505 and the newer PRS-700 which came out in November. On the other hand, when the Apple iPhone 3G came out, they discontinued the first generation iPhone completely.

Which business model will Amazon follow? Hmmm.... Whatever way they go, I suspect there will be overlap between K1 and K2 at least until all the backorders are taken care of.

L
 

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Anita said:
It totally holds water with me! If I get a 'newer version' of Kindle I won't feel like I got something I did not order.

I did not order "Kindle 1". I ordered an e-reader from Amazon with a fairly good variety of available content. Which is exactly what I will end up with - no matter what it looks like. I don't know how ergonomic it will be, but I didn't know the answer to that question when I placed the order anyway. I can return it if it's not good for me....but I kind of doubt I will want to return it :D
I hear ya. . .but I still think Amazon will be in touch with you to advise you about the 'new' version and ask if you want to keep your order in or cancel, knowing that what you will eventually receive would not be the exact item you ordered. You'd consider it essentially the same and even an improvement, and that's great. But if they didn't do that, if they just sent K2 with no interim correspondence, well, there are not-so-nice people in the world who would say, "I didn't order this, I ordered that, I'm not paying for it." Not saying it would be right. . .just saying it could happen.

Which is why I expect that beginning 1 minute or less after the press conference on Monday, e-mails will go out to those who have a Kindle on order.

(And some one will probably post a copy if it here 2 minutes after. . . . :) )

Ann
 

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Ann Von Hagel said:
Which is why I expect that beginning 1 minute or less after the press conference on Monday, e-mails will go out to those who have a Kindle on order.

(And some one will probably post a copy if it here 2 minutes after. . . . :) )

Ann
Gee I sure hope so! I have a meeting from 9:00-10:00AM EST tomorrow. So I figure after a couple minutes of post-meeting small talk, and the inevitable running into folks in halls on the way back to my desk, I will go to my desk to check my email and then come straight to Kindleboards where I expect to see a posting about what happened in the press conference. I will probably come here before I start looking elsewhere on the internet to find out what happened, LOL!
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
If they had K1s, why wouldn't they have sent them out already? And with the production of a new model, why would they keep making the old ones? Apple dose not keep making their older Mac versions, once they update. I do hope, they have enough to give to those who want them but I am pretty doubtful. I do not think they have been making K1s for some time, imho.
 

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Octochick said:
If they had K1s, why wouldn't they have sent them out already? And with the production of a new model, why would they keep making the old ones? Apple dose not keep making their older Mac versions, once they update. I do hope, they have enough to give to those who want them but I am pretty doubtful. I do not think they have been making K1s for some time, imho.
Maybe to be able to offer a choice to people who have ordered, so they don't have to deal with a bunch of returns that they have to sell later as refurbs? I dunno. I think a lot of our questions will be answered tomorrow.
 

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Anita said:
I did not order "Kindle 1". I ordered an e-reader from Amazon with a fairly good variety of available content.
I respectfully disagree. You ordered a product with (and quite possibly based on) a certain set of criterion and specifications.
 

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BambiB said:
I respectfully disagree. You ordered a product with (and quite possibly based on) a certain set of criterion and specifications.
yeah - the criterion and specifications were that it was an e-reader from a reputable vendor with a fairly good variety of content. I did not order it based on specific height, weight, color or other general appearance criteria. I ordered it because of it's function.

If it looks a bit different than the picture I ordered from I can probably live with it. Or I can return it. Either way, I'm good.
 

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I think this theory holds a lot of water--good on you Octochick.   They may have just run out (due to the Oprah effect) unexpectedly and then just took orders on #1 to wait it out during the gap. This just makes so much sense and is the simplest explanation for all this.  I think it would have been nice of them to fill us in a bit.  However, all along they have been nothing but secretive.   This builds suspense, but I'm not sure it will benefit them in the long term.  How big is this business anyway? The unknown makes it more interesting anyway.  
 

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I sincerely hope they will have some K1's available to cover any warranty replacements for the next year. I got mine at Christmas, I have an Oberon cover and if something happens to mine, the K2 is not fitting in my cover. I dont want a K2 replacement. I would hope that if you have a warranty issue, they will be able to replace your order to your specs.
 

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Octochick said:
I am sure they still thought her influence, is only over a bunch of housewives and a 14.00 paperback is not a 300.00+ gadget...
For me it had nothing to do with Oprah, I was already interested in the Kindle, it was the $50.00 discount! If anything, what they should learn from this, is if they knocked the price down $50 or so, they would probably sell thousands more. I think 299.00 would make a huge difference for many who are on the fence. That is just six 9.99 kindle books.
This was the same situation with me. I wanted the Kindle when it first came out and didn't order because of the long wait time. My daughter saw the Oprah show and ordered mine and one for herself as Christmas presents. I'm still doing my happy dance and love it. I do like the look of the new version, but until something happens to mine I won't be upgrading. My Kindle has a pretty new skin and a new Oberon cover, which makes her special to me. I do feel the frustration of the ones waiting and I trust that Amazon will do whatever it takes to make customers happy. I'll be glad when the speculation is over tomorrow. It has been an interesting week though. :)
 
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