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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Let's share our wild ideas!

HOT for 2013:

Spaghetti publishing! Toss up the first book in a potential series. See if there's traction before you write the second book.

Short form! Novellas and Novelettes and even Short Stories. The Select program favors a prolific author with a high volume of units.

Sex. In everything.

So-called "reluctant readers" suddenly reading; top 100 books with revolting grammar and editing because they just don't care, so long as the story's appealing. (Don't underestimate the enormity enormousness of this trend. These are new readers of all ages who were not reading books until now--now that they've discovered material, much of it self-pubbed, that appeals to them.)

NOT for 2013:

I think Serials are on the way out. They'll be seen as legitimate in 2013, and people will know what they are, and they'll have an audience, but they won't be taking over publishing.

Out: keeping your head down and plugging away. Indie authors should be careful about how they spend their hours, and put an emphasis on craft and production, but working away in the dark isn't good for this business. And it is a business. You can't expect to run a successful retail store or restaurant by keeping your head down and ignoring what the competition is doing.

Out: distributors who aren't Smashwords*. *IF SW picks up their game and stops complaining about mean Amazon and gets their house in order.

(Add your own!)
 

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Agreeing with the novella and/or short story as loss leader.

Also agree that we'll see more shorter novels thrown out as feelers before authors commit to writing the series. Question is what criteria will they use to evaluate their commitment? 
 

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Brian Spangler said:
Also agree that we'll see more shorter novels thrown out as feelers before authors commit to writing the series. Question is what criteria will they use to evaluate their commitment?
Well, that happened with mine. I put out Only Human as a stand alone space opera. Almost all of the positive reviews on Amazon and Goodreads have asked for a sequel. That's a pretty good indication that there is some interest.
I ended up creating a shorter prequel (Catalyst) to keep things going until the sequel is done.
 

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Hugh Howey said:
I thought she was serious until I got to the last one. ;D

Smashwords?
To be fair, the odds of SW getting their act together are about on par with that of my winning the lottery, so...

I predict an increase in utterly unoriginal, just-like-everybody-else covers and painfully formulaic book blurbs on both new and backlist titles as writers struggle to identify why their books aren't selling and refuse to accept that there's no easy answer.

I predict approximately one new thread a week here about why DWS is god, why DWS is completely out of touch with and irrelevant to the masses, why DWS is the most exciting self-publishing visionary since that one guy who sold a million books by paying for bogus reviews, and why DWS is a bald-faced hypocrite.

I predict that within a few months, serials really are going to be "so 2012".

I predict that Smashwords drops at least two of their current distribution platforms, and announces at least one new one distribution agreement that never actually comes to fruition.

I predict that there will be no new 50SOG-level epic bestsellers during 2013 that aren't connected to a movie or TV show, a la Hunger Games.

I predict approximately one new thread a week here asking if Amazon's rankings and/or sales reporting are broken.

I predict approximately one new thread a week using some random person's hysterical, probably several-months-old blog as evidence that the sky is falling and/or Amazon are ruthless monsters out to crush indie writers.

I predict the return of David Dalgrish and Debora Geary as regular KBWC posters. :)
 

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Agree with Spaghetti Publishing. Get stuff up on the wall. We've got to use our noodle, though, and be sure it's not half-cooked, as that's not as likely to stick.

Disagree on the competition thing. I don't see other authors as competition. Nor do I see writing as foremost a business. I see it as an author's lovefest with his readers. Whatever promotes a lovefest is what's going to pay in the long run.  
 

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I disagree about novellas.

I agree serials are going out of vogue.

The new adult erotic titles will continue to increase in popularity in the first six months of the year, and get more taboo. Watch out for the sexy, rich stepfather breakout hit from another former writer of YA PNR, or Abbi Glines, or someone like that. Ménage will also be really big in 2013. I'm also seeing increasingly dark, non-sexual subject matter being addressed in these books, especially suicide; we'll probably see one oriented around something like a school shooting soon.

There will also be a backlash response to the increasingly naughty NA fiction. Probably an upsurge in religious/inspirational/sweet romances.

I think paranormal will become less and less popular.

Not sure where trends will go after that, but this NA contemp thing is going to "mature" in 2013, and something new will rise.

Amazon's imprints will focus on acquiring formerly tradpubbed authors and fewer indies.

Apple will make it easier for authors to distribute directly next holiday season, and that will be the nail in Smashwords' coffin.
 

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I see multiple free site for current WIP for authors to put up their books (does that even make sense? Bah, throw some examples out - they'll understand.) For example: using Wattpad, Goodreads, even fanfiction sites to put up free books from authors to help "test" the waters. I predict at least three or four "big" deals coming from those. Perhaps one has to do with zombie love. Maybe.

Myspace will becoming the IT place for attracting readers. No idea why. My crystal ball is even shrugging with me.

At least five KBers will get some sort of fantastic, awesome, off the wall contract.

Pre-teens are going to become a hot market. Once again, my crystal ball is shrugging, not sure why that's going to happen.

Doing a KB ad will become even better than doing a POI, ENT, and KND all rolled into one.

Egyptians are going to make a come back. Or Norse. Choose. Either is a good bet.

Crap will ease up on the book market because people are getting lazy as something else becomes the new get-rich-quick thing. Real authors rejoice. Partying in Times Square except of course we won't be there because we're all hermits. :)
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Oh, I was totes serious about everything. I think the only thing causing SW to get on the ball with epubs is the competitors champing at their heels. Look how many threads we've had recently. And I like the new guys (one of them posts on here, hi!!) and I'm happy to see them take the wheel if SW doesn't, but if SW gets their head out of their chowderbucket, everyone else is toast.

Quiss said:
... Almost all of the positive reviews on Amazon and Goodreads have asked for a sequel. That's a pretty good indication that there is some interest....
Most positive reviews will hint at desire for a sequel. Nobody ever says, "That was great! Don't write more!" I've had sequel requests for my least popular books. Doesn't mean it's a good business plan to write them. :D

George Berger said:
...I predict an increase in utterly unoriginal, just-like-everybody-else covers and painfully formulaic book blurbs on both new and backlist titles as writers struggle to identify why their books aren't selling and refuse to accept that there's no easy answer. ...
Yeah, but that's nothing new, just a continuation of the existing situation.

CarlG said:
Agree with Spaghetti Publishing. Get stuff up on the wall. We've got to use our noodle, though, and be sure it's not half-cooked, as that's not as likely to stick.

Disagree on the competition thing. I don't see other authors as competition. Nor do I see writing as foremost a business. I see it as an author's lovefest with his readers. Whatever promotes a lovefest is what's going to pay in the long run.
I've never said you can't LOVE your business and be passionate and enthusiastic about everything you do. Passion and business are not mutually exclusive.

smreine said:
...The new adult erotic titles will continue to increase in popularity in the first six months of the year, and get more taboo. Watch out for the sexy, rich stepfather breakout hit from another former writer of YA PNR, or Abbi Glines, or someone like that. Ménage will also be really big in 2013. I'm also seeing increasingly dark, non-sexual subject matter being addressed in these books, especially suicide; we'll probably see one oriented around something like a school shooting soon. ...
That stepfather thing is a terrible, nasty, horrible idea that won't make any money at all. Everybody back away from my new series idea. MINE. (eta: JOKE! EW! JOKE!)

Danielle Kazemi said:
...At least five KBers will get some sort of fantastic, awesome, off the wall contract.
...
Pre-teens are going to become a hot market. Once again, my crystal ball is shrugging, not sure why that's going to happen.
....
Yes, of course! Plucked from our slushpile of awesome!

Pre-teens - yes. Only they'll also be the ones writing it, and we'll be the "olds" scratching our heads.

The biggest change of self-publishing is we are bypassing the gatekeepers and their taste. No more (of that particular demographic with their didactic motivations and high-minded world-view) filtering what the world reads.

GIRD YOUR LOINS, AUTHORS.



The trends of television have foretold the trends of publishing. We have high-brow, we have low-brow, we have little in between.
 

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I'll jump in to disagree about serials. Yes, they'll fade as a fad, but I think that episodic writing (as opposed to "novels in a series") is going to find a good-sized niche in the ebook universe.
 

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Edward W. Robertson said:
I don't know if it will happen, but there's a real demand for useful advertising in stores beyond Amazon. People should get on that already. :p
I think the reason there isn't a mega book blog for Nook already is because the affiliate link money is so much easier to get from Amazon. The B&N audience is also very heavy in mostly the romance and erotica categories, and a lot less in every other category.
 

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I predict that in 2013 I'll be just as confused and deer-in-the-headlights as I was in 2012, but probably worse since I think I know what to do. "If I stand completely still the car will avoid me! There was a thread about it last week!"

I reckon 2013 will be a good year for YA/Midgrade.

I think this is also the year Smashwords either makes its move or begins to die. Apple is a HUGE, largely untapped market and if they decided to really, really put their weight behind their books (such as releasing an iBook client for Windows/Android/etc, making it easy to upload things with a KDP like interface, and maybe even Apple's equivalent or Select) Amazon might find themselves very quickly in a lot of hot water come 2014.

Smut will sell, smut will always sell, but I wish I could write it worth a damn. :D

I had a very successful December (by my meagre standards) due entirely to Select, but I expect Select will begin to be less relevant this year, especially for smaller genres like Sci-Fi, unless Amazon seriously raises their game.

I expect to write a lot more in terms of volume and a lot better in terms of quality, and I expect to do a lot better financially in this year. I expect I'll have to change a lot of what I do by the end of the year, but I'm happy to do that.

Despite the above, writing quality across the board will continue to drop, and the rest of us will look on with despair as poorly written stories with grimace inducing plots and style, and just overall badness, continue to do well. Like I said, I expect to do well this year.

I expect to make more money from Rakshasa than Lacuna in 2013. I expect near the end of the year I'll probably start another series that will hopefully be better.

I reckon we're going to have a lot more KB'ers to cheer onwards this year though, and I think we're an awesome group of people who will all find some measure of success in 2013. :)
 

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Dalya said:
GIRD YOUR LOINS, AUTHORS.



The trends of television have foretold the trends of publishing. We have high-brow, we have low-brow, we have little in-between.
Dibs on the low brow. I totally think the world is ready for Honey Boo Boo versus the undead. She'll be bigger than Dresden! Instead of a fedora, she'll roam the cities with her princess crown, tossing it like Xena's chakram. This is the multi-billion dollar idea!
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
jnfr said:
I'll jump in to disagree about serials. Yes, they'll fade as a fad, but I think that episodic writing (as opposed to "novels in a series") is going to find a good-sized niche in the ebook universe.
What resonates with readers: a complete story, of any size. It need not end on a cliffhanger for them to demand more. I base this on my observation that people demand to get more after my stand-alones than they do after the things I plan as series. They want to be satisfied and later re-experience more of the same joy, as opposed to reading part of a story ... except for those people who enjoy the sweet torture of part of a story. (Serialization is not a trend, but a niche.)

Danielle Kazemi said:
Dibs on the low brow. I totally think the world is ready for Honey Boo Boo versus the undead. She'll be bigger than Dresden! Instead of a fedora, she'll roam the cities with her princess crown, tossing it like Xena's chakram. This is the multi-billion dollar idea!
But! But! It cannot be mocking them and their tastes. That's wrong and they'll sniff out the cynicism. It must be earnest. (I recognize you're being tongue-in-cheek, but I wanted to make that point regardless.)
 

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Dalya said:
But! But! It cannot be mocking them and their tastes. That's wrong and they'll sniff out the cynicism. It must be earnest. (I recognize you're being tongue-in-cheek, but I wanted to make that point regardless.)
I'll make it earnest. I'm all about that. Think of it as some Miss Congeniality tossed in there too. She wins pageants during the day but at night, she fights against the forces of evil.

You know, I probably need to watch the show before I start getting carried away. All I've ever seen is her and her family playing in the mud. Or was she slaying a mud man? Dun dunnn dunnnnn! :)
 

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David Adams said:
...writing quality across the board will continue to drop, and the rest of us will look on with despair as poorly written stories with grimace inducing plots and style, and just overall badness, continue to do well. Like I said, I expect to do well this year.
Likewise. :) Everyone else is all "damn, I missed out on the golden age of self-publishing, boo hoo", but, bah, those of us poised to take advantage of the golden age of grimace-inducing crap have the world right where we want it, bwahahahahahahahahahahahahaha...
 
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