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Hudson Owen said:
The West, including the US, has already passed the height of its civilization. The countries with the most diverse populations are more likely to fall apart first regardless of cause. Fifty years from now, Japan will still be home to the Japanese people. Fifty years from now, the United States, may be a confederacy of ethnic minorities--a return to tribalism.
The doom and gloom line makes a great story, of course, but western civilisation fell for the first time with the Roman Empire. There are interim lacks of cohesion, which is when dystopian stories happen, but empires and the stability they generate are the norm, rather than the exception. You can look historically, at the period after the roman empire, or when the Napoleonic, or Ottoman adventures folded up to see how groups and areas behave.
 
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