1) Pricing can be thought of in multiple ways.
When starting off think of it as friction.
Zero Friction = Free + Visibility + Some sort of social proof (bestseller ranking, good reviewers, huge number of downloads, bestseller status, etc.).
Low Friction = $1 + as many good factors as possible.
Later, or for readers who have been burnt in the past by Free and Cheap, think of it as a quality signaller or the price of admission to your reading experience.
High Pricing = Indicator of Quality OR Entry Price to Finish Experience/Story started earlier.
However, this is only for some people. Most people give more weightage to reviews and what's written in reviews.
Now, the rough rule of thumb is
At $5 you'll get 1/10th the readers as at $1 IF you are an unknown.
At $3 1/3rd.
So, when you're new you can't afford to lose 2/3rds or 9/10ths of your potential readers.
However, once you have branding and once you have readers hooked, you can charge a higher price.
Also, for books that are 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc. in a series you can charge more.
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For every 1 reader you'll lose because they think $1 might mean loq quality, you'll lose 3 because they don't want to pay $3 or $5 for an unknown author.
Of course, the readers who buy at $3 or $5 are more likely to review and more likely to leave good reviews, so it's a tough decision.
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2) Regarding this: And I agree with you that there will always be a post-apocalyptic genre. My question about saturation was more oriented around how difficult it is becoming to build a brand, as you suggested, because the (online) shelves are already chock full of them. Of course, everyone has something new to offer, or that is the hope.
What's happened in the last few years is that the playing field has changed.
IN the past it was a function of
Getting approved by Publishers so you could get into the distribution channels.
Getting into stores and finding a niche that has demand.
Quality of writing
Having enough money or publisher backing to actually print books and distribute them
Now, it's all about
Visibility - how many readers you can get access to. This is what the big promotion sites basically are. It's not that they're converting at a high rate or picking the best books. Just that 'a small percentage of a very large number is a large number'. Social Media and Blogging and Email Newsletters also fall into this category. These are all ways to MAKE A BOOK SEEM A HIT and seem to be getting word of mouth when it's actually just getting it a ton of visibility.
Strategy - Can you use a new strategy that beats everyone. First this was free and cheap (first authors like Paulo Coleho, and then Naomi Novik, Robin Hobbs were the first big authors to try free books), then it became 1st in series free and 2nd $1 and rest cheap (Amanda Hocking and John Locke etc.), then it became serials (I think Wool is an example, though not sure if it was one of the first to leverage that strategy), then Boxed Sets. Now it's becoming chopped up books i.e. serials that aren't really serials. Just one book broken into 10 parts.
Pricing - In 2009 there were 3 or 4 free books (I mean in the Kindle Store, officially, not public domain). In 2010 there were a few a month. Gradually it kept increasing. Now there are thousands every day. Boxed Sets and Series Specials are also examples of competitive differentiation via pricing.
Quality of Writing - This actually doesn't matter as much now. In the past it was Top 2 (along with Marketing) However, it's still very important.
Bestseller Lists - How long can you stay on Bestseller Lists and at what spots. Think of this as Step 2 Visibility. Step 1 Visibility (Promotion and Marketing) gets you Sales. Those get you a position on the Bestseller Lists.
Other Factors that are very new and not well understood.
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The next step is probably going to be Virality. What BuckBooks is doing. They're saying - we'll promote your book for free if you get readers to subscribe to our email list. That allows them to grow faster than they would otherwise - because authors are helping them grow in order for the free promotion.
Equivalent for authors would be to tell readers - Here's a special prequel. You get it for free (and no other way) if you promote my 1st book on FB and Twitter or to your phone contacts list. If you get 100 interested readers they could help you reach 1,000 other readers. It just costs you 100 free copies which basically cost you 100MB of bandwidth usage - basically nothing to reach 1,000 other readers.
If you build this up you'll get 3-5 years before other authors duplicate it. Because it'll be 1-2 years before they realize how powerful it is and how well you are leveraging it.
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At some point authors are going to realize that word of mouth can be constructed and virality can be constructed. It's not going to be pretty. Think Apps with In App Purchases and Offer Walls i.e.
Buy 50,000 Gold Coins for $50. Use 10,000 Gold Coins to unlock Part 2 of the story.
Get 10,000 Gold Coins for sharing with your Contact List
etc.
Or it could be done elegantly. Not sure how.
However, the books would have to be written and structured with virality and word of mouth in mind. Which makes it completely different from writing a story. Now you'd be writing a story that doesn't reveal itself until it's shared.
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3) The thing with language and sex is that it sometimes (not always) indicates a lack of ability to convey the same strength of emotion via pure words.
One author writes - The Old man got on the boat, as he had a million times before.
Another author writes The old man cursed the #$#$ boat, and wearily got on it, for the (*(@#*
[email protected]# millionth time.
The effect isn't that different. However, the first can be read by everyone and the second only by adult readers and readers who don't mind swearing and language.
Now, with the Kindle, we get very interesting demographics
- Young kids whose parents won't let them read anything even a bit age inapporpriate
- Everyone who's religious. Most religions are very averse to bad language and very restricted about depictions of sex.
- Everyone who considers some things should be left in the bedroom.
- Young readers who probably wouldn't be choosing reading over listening to rap music if they loved swearing and such
- Most people who prefer not to read cuss language in the middle of some journey they're on. Bad language and four letter words have very different meanings and impact for different people. So you might write @!#$#$ in a nonchalant way, but for your reader it might remind them of the one time in their life their granddad totally lost his cool.
So, you're losing somewhere between 30% and 60% of your potential readership.
Also, some of the countries that are becoming big in reading, like China and India, and the Middle East, view things very differently.
If your book or your writing style needs swearing and sex, it's fine. If you have a choice, then no point leaving out 45% of your potential audience. It gives you the added benefit that you have to figure out how to use words to create the same impact that a sex scene would, etc.
